Back in April, in the heady, hopeful days of Lockdown One when we all thought the pandemic might be over by Christmas – or January, if it really hung around – I offered some thoughts on options for the coming academic year. Now that it appears Covid may be more of an enduring partner than a passing fling, we are considering its long-term impact on the sector.
Two areas that will need more attention in coming months are admissions and continuation. In part, this is because over the past months it has become abundantly clear that the Westminster government’s policy intents have not been in any way deflected by the pandemic. Last week the Skills White Paper set out the government’s stall on how it will provide support for further education and focus on technical skills. The missing part of the policy slate – following updates on the Augar review, the Pearce review of the Teaching Excellence Framework and post-qualification admissions – was how ministers will address issues around “low-quality courses” and grade inflation.
These issues are undoubtedly still high on the government’s priority list, but the pandemic will present additional challenges in implementing any policies. Take low-quality courses, for example. We may not be any closer to absolute clarity on what they are, but we know they are likely to encompass continuation and employment metrics, and grade inflation.
But employment metrics will, inevitably and obviously, suffer as the post-pandemic economic crisis continues to evolve. While health and related sectors are working incredibly flexibly to ensure students’ degrees can be securely awarded and they can move seamlessly into the workplace, there are indications in some sectors that the numbers achieving professional registration have slowed and there is real concern that some students may have to extend their studies to complete. The longer the economy is in and out of lockdown, the harder it will be to secure graduate-level employment across all sectors, and in all nations of the UK.
That is why, in England, the QAA is working closely with the Department for Education, the universities minister, professional and regulatory bodies, and Universities UK to define and resolve issues affecting accredited degrees and their graduates, and why, to this extent at least, the graduate employability dimension is a work in progress.
But the impact of lockdown on admissions and continuation could be just as stark. It is now confirmed that the September 2021 intake will not be admitted on the basis of the traditional school exam format in any of the four nations of the United Kingdom. Indeed, the Westminster government’s curriculum reforms removing assessed coursework arguably put England in a weaker position than Scotland and Wales.
We have already heard from English admissions teams that teacher-assessed grades in 2020 produced anomalous results for some schools. The pattern of results awarded by teacher-assessed grades is, I’m sure, something that school regulators will keep a close eye on. And we, in turn, will keep in close touch with them to make sure we understand this.
In 2020, though, the lockdown hit at the point that year 13s had completed most of their curricula, and teachers at least had solid school-based learning upon which to base their grade assessments. By contrast, the 2021 intake will have done substantial amounts of their core curriculum learning in year 12 via homeschool, and now are impacted in year 13 as well.
There are likely to be (unpredictable and inconsistent) chunks of their school learning missing. What impact will this have on their undergraduate studies? Will higher education providers be called upon to make up the missing learning? And if so, how do we identify it, when do we timetable it, and who provides (and funds) it? If we cannot answer these questions, what impact will the lack of foundational knowledge have on continuation rates? Will we see higher intakes (as this year) from teacher-assessed grades leading to higher withdrawal rates as students struggle to keep up with study designed in many courses to build on a solid base at level 3?
Looking further out, if the vaccine roll-out goes to plan, the 2022 intake will sit their final school exams as their first formal examinations. These will be students who have had no opportunity to practise examination skills, who have missed chunks of learning, and the learning of academic discipline and technique, in the three most fundamental years of their education, for whom higher education providers will be expected to provide support to enable them to graduate securely and move into graduate-level employment without compromising the quality and standards of their own provision.
On one level, I’m tempted to conclude that at least in 2024 and 2025 the undergraduate grade inflation issue may have taken care of itself; but – given the regulatory emphasis on continuation and completion rates – at what cost to the sector at large?
On all these issues, we continue to work closely with governments, sector bodies, regulators of school and higher education sectors, and partner agencies to think through the unforeseen consequences of both short-term adjustments to the public health crisis and their longer-term implications.
Vicki Stott is deputy chief executive officer at the UK’s Quality Assurance Agency.
