Buckle up

So farewell to a year that turned out to be every bit as unpredictable as was predicted in this column 12 months ago, and hello to a new one that is likely to offer another bumpy ride.

Last January, the higher education forecasters we asked for new year’s predictions offered up a range of issues, with a forewarning about economic turmoil and inflation proving to be the most enduring.

So what might this year hold in store? Here are the predictions for 2023:

Sir Anthony Finkelstein, president of City, University of London, on geopolitics:

“The international and geopolitical outlook will continue to be fraught. Russian aggression in Ukraine will persist though active warfare will wax and wane. China’s ambitions for regional hegemony will remain, but internal challenges may mean an increasingly inward focus.

“Global supply chains will stabilise, and international trade will show signs of recovery. The AUKUS [Australia-UK-US] axis will strengthen with alignment of values assuming greater importance.

“What does this mean for universities? The market for overseas students will remain challenging. India will grow, China will remain static. Transnational education [TNE] will be less attractive, digital delivery will extend. Universities will tighten management of overseas relationships.

“We will retreat from so-called partnerships with China, as universities start to engage with the tensions between the national interest and their global engagements.”

Dame Sally Mapstone, principal and vice-chancellor, University of St Andrews, on internationalisation:

“Political debate about the misperceived trade-off between international and domestic student places will only get louder as we approach another general election.

“We need to keep drawing back attention to the massive economic and cultural value that international students bring to the UK, while being honest where there are challenges in compliance.

“The storm clouds created by tensions with China and security concerns will continue to gather, accelerating the rush to diversify student markets.

“There will be a move by universities from Australia and the UK to re-establish themselves in growing markets such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, but we will also see more universities from Europe and Asia delivering TNE.”

Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, on politics:

“Minds will turn to the next UK election, where they will remain until it happens (probably in 2024).

“Political parties, especially Labour, will come under pressure to say how they will fund universities.

“Cost-of-living issues means student maintenance is going to continue being a high priority for some, if not necessarily for the government.

“The Conservatives will battle between those who want to mount a full campaign from the centre right to stay in power, and those who argue for a core vote strategy aimed at shoring up support further to the right: parties far behind in the polls are prone to damaging splits.

“I suspect we’ll hear more attacks on higher education as a way of trying to big up further education without spending more money on it, and I also suspect we’ll see the culture war continue.”

Vivienne Stern, chief executive of Universities UK, on university funding:

“The optimist in me says that this is the year when we take the first steps towards sorting out the financial challenges faced by our universities.

“In England, after 10 years of near-frozen fees and continued high inflation, the risk is that we see constraints on access and opportunity just as the number of 18-year-olds climbs towards 2030.

“Children just starting secondary school now deserve the same opportunities as those born in a demographic dip – and the answer cannot be to go back to underfunded expansion.

“And that’s my second prediction: we’re going to be talking a lot about quality, and asking ourselves some searching questions about how to build public and political confidence in this area.”

Simone Buitendijk, vice-chancellor, University of Leeds, on teaching and learning:

“Teaching and learning has changed, and in 2023 students’ interest in attending lectures will not go back to pre-Covid times. They have become accustomed to watching, rewinding or playing at 1.5 times the normal speed, from the comfort of their own room, at a time that suits them.

“It is clear that students do want to be together and interact. If we make our teaching active and engaging, and provide an experience for which you have to be physically present to fully benefit, they will come. Otherwise, many lecturers may find themselves alone, or in the company of just a few students, in 2023 and beyond.”

Graeme Reid, chair of science and research policy, UCL, on research:

“Even if the European Commission agreed to Horizon association in the coming months, ministers would need to be persuaded to send a cheque for several billion pounds to Brussels in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis. I find that difficult to imagine.

“I suspect 2023 will see alternative arrangements take shape. The idea of a single Plan B funding package is already being overtaken by incremental support for international collaboration.

“Plan B looks like it will be the narrative that binds together these incremental announcements rather than a single blast of cash.

“This has advantages. But it carries the risk of some of the money promised in the 2021 spending review quietly leaking out of Plan B and going back to the Treasury.” 

If these predictions set us up for a febrile year, bear in mind that last year’s crystal ball gazers got some big calls right, but none foresaw the central event of 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Amid such instability, there’s comfort to be found in any crumbs of familiarity, and to that end Finkelstein offers one last prediction: “Professors will continue to bemoan the state of international affairs, holiday in Provence and enjoy the occasional curry.” Let’s raise a glass of rosé or Kingfisher beer to that.

john.gill@timeshighereducation.com