UK universities expected to benefit from Australian caps

British universities are seen as the most likely beneficiaries if government-imposed caps deter international students from Australia, with the move also strengthening the hand of alternative study destinations, according to analysts.

Canberra announced in August that it intends to allow public universities to admit about 145,000 new foreign students to their Australian campuses in 2025.

While most institutions have been given provisional caps that are not significantly below their current enrolments, student recruitment agents said the real impact of the policy could be in the way it is perceived abroad.

“The message they [students] are getting is loud and clear that they are not welcome,” said Sonya Singh, founder and chief executive of Indian student recruitment agency SIEC.

“Capping [enrolments at] the Group of Eight universities will definitely result in high-quality students choosing to study in other countries,” added Nishidhar Borra, president of the Association of Australian Education Representatives in India. “While there are incentives to study at regional universities, they may not be sufficient.”

Other agents said the swathe of recent policy changes (Australia recently increased visa fees and introduced a new framework for processing visas based on risk) are likely to add to the feeling among international students that they are unwanted, possibly spurring them to turn to other destinations – even if there are enough places at Australia’s universities.

“Indian students no longer want to be treated as second-class citizens, and at present that is the sentiment in the student community: [a feeling] of being targeted unfairly and them not having a voice,” said Ms Singh.

In Canada, international interest nosedived after the government imposed study visa caps earlier in 2024, according to analysis by edtech company ApplyBoard, which suggests that colleges and universities there may struggle to reach the limits set by policymakers.

Some believe that the UK, which has suffered after recent political turbulence, could become more attractive to students because of Australia’s policy, particularly learners from South-east Asia.

“These markets have traditionally been very Australia-focused, and the UK has not yet achieved the same level of traction there,” said Jeffrey Williams, co-founder of Enroly, who added that this presented a “significant opportunity”.

First, however, he predicted that Australian universities could experience a leap in applications as students try to beat the caps, which could “temporarily impact the steady return of the UK market as students and agents prioritise securing a spot in Australia”.

Other less-traditional destinations are also attracting interest, according to agents and analysts, and could see a surge in demand as a result of the new policy.

Sagar Bahadur, executive director for India and South Asia at international services provider Sannam S4, described a “shifting landscape, where students are increasingly open to exploring lesser-known but promising educational opportunities across various regions”, with destinations including Switzerland, Poland, the Netherlands, Japan and South Korea becoming more popular.

Others flagged Germany and Ireland as increasingly popular destinations, particularly among Indian students.

helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com