‘Seismic shifts’ seen in Canadian enrolments as cap hits Indians

The number of study permits issued to international students arriving in Canada has fallen sharply since a cap was introduced, according to a new report, with record low numbers of Indian students arriving.

Canadian student recruitment firm ApplyBoard said the figures reflected worsening geopolitical relations with India and are the first indication of “seismic shifts” in the country’s student demographics.

The Trudeau government announced in January that it was going to cut the number of visas approved by a third, amid concerns about disreputable private colleges and housing shortages.

New data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) shows that 33,000 new study permits were processed in March – down from 70,000 issued in March 2023 and 45,301 in March 2022.

ApplyBoard’s analysis shows that just 4,210 of the new permits were for Indian students – an 85 per cent decrease from the 28,073 in the same month last year.

“March saw a historically low number of permits processed for Indian students…which could be the first indication of seismic shifts in incoming student demographics,” warns the report.

ApplyBoard says various factors may be at play, with student loans in India becoming harder to secure, and relations between India and Canada becoming strained.

It says several high-profile media stories, including accusations that India might have been behind the assassination of a Sikh leader in Canada, may be “giving prospective students pause”.

According to ApplyBoard, the cap and the subsequent freezing of applications in January likely had a disproportionate impact on Indian study permit applications, compared to others, because they tend to favour the college diplomas and university undergraduate degrees affected most by the reforms.

The data shows that two-thirds of all international student populations had lower approval rates for study permits in the first quarter of 2024 than they did in 2023. Ghana and Nigeria – two of the country’s largest sources of students – saw their approval rates fall considerably.

The report said lower rates could be due to a number of factors, including students submitting applications without the necessary supporting documents, but that it was a “concerning downturn”.

However, demand from many African countries, including Ghana and Nigeria, was still found to be high.

“Given the limitations placed on institutions by temporary study permit caps, it may be tempting for institutions to prioritise students from countries with historically higher visa approval rates,” concludes the report.

“However, given the potential slowdown of Indian students’ interest in Canada, and how approval rates are shifting in 2024, the most balanced approach may be through encouraging acceptance of students from a diverse range of countries.”

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com