A levels: sector waits as ‘disappointed’ students decide what next

‘Record’ numbers of 18-year-olds failing to achieve their predicted high A-level grades could prove a recruitment boost for universities in clearing, or they could decide to walk away from higher education altogether, experts have warned. 

Figures show that fewer students gained a place at their preferred university this results day, following an attempt by the regulator Ofqual to return exam grades to pre-pandemic levels in England.

Consultancy dataHE estimates that 55,000 UK 18-year-olds will have missed the high grades they were predicted by teachers – up 22,000 on last year. Nine per cent of applicants were placed in clearing this morning, up from 7 per cent in 2022.

Mark Corver, managing director of dataHE, said this represents the highest level of “applicant disappointment” ever seen, and the clearing process will now depend on how willing this cohort is to reset their aspirations.

“It looks like another tough year for applicants in getting into the course they had hoped for,” he told Times Higher Education.

“Many universities who are still keen to recruit will be waiting and hoping to see if these applicants will come to them or whether they will lose interest altogether for this cycle.”

It comes after reports suggested that a record number of young people are already choosing to defer entry to a sector marred by continued marking boycotts, and real-terms cuts to maintenance loans.

Mike Nicholson, director of recruitment, admissions and participation at the University of Cambridge, said the differences in actual and predicted grades reflected the difficulties teachers have faced in assessing pupils’ chances, particularly those who had changed schools.

Although grading in England followed a 2019 grade distribution, Mr Nicholson said there are a number of reasons why outcomes will be different this year.

Highly oversubscribed universities are showing less flexibility than in 2019, which marked a low point for application numbers, he said.

In addition, Mr Nicholson said in 2023 far fewer universities made conditional or unconditional offers, but noted that providers now have additional data points available to take into consideration.

“Universities have had greater confidence in accepting offer holders who have missed their offer grades, particularly where there was additional contextual information about the student provided through Ucas,” he said.

Matthew Andrews, pro vice-chancellor for governance and student affairs at the University of Gloucestershire, said he has great sympathy for this cohort who will be disappointed to have had record high GCSE grades matched with harsher-graded A levels.

“There is a very large number of students free to be placed in clearing and I hope that those people in clearing, because they did not get confirmed at their firm choice institution, will now look at all the opportunities available to them,” he said.

“The worst possible outcome would be if students who have set their sights on a higher education now give up entirely. That would be a waste of human talent and potential.”

Dr Andrews said reports of a “scramble” for places in clearing are “misguided”, with a large number of high-quality courses still available across the country.

“The reality is that while the grades awarded to students this year have dropped, this was expected and universities will recalibrate their expectations accordingly,” he added.

The Sutton Trust said the overall picture from the results is one of growing disparity between the most and least well-off young people – revealing significant regional discrepancies, as well as a widening gap between independent and state schools.

Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, said it is increasingly clear that universities will need to engage far more in contextual admissions - considering the achievement of students in the context in which the grades were secured.

“In short, we will have to do much more in levelling the educational playing field,” he added.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com