Early Ucas applications fall for second successive year

The number of people submitting early university applications in the UK has fallen for the second year in a row, in what experts said was representative of weakening demand for higher education, but many universities will be “relieved it is not worse”.

Figures from the admissions service Ucas show that 72,740 individuals applied to study medicine, dentistry and veterinary degrees, or for courses at the universities of Oxford and Cambridge by the 16 October deadline.

This was down 1.8 per cent on 2022, which itself saw a record drop in applications. It means that applicant numbers have fallen in successive years for the first time and that the total number has dropped to the lowest level since October 2019.

Mark Corver, co-founder of the dataHE consultancy and a former director of analysis and research at Ucas, said October deadline numbers are a first, if imperfect, measure of demand for the coming year.

“First sight of demand for 2024 shows a continuing weak picture,” he told Times Higher Education. “Universities will simply be relieved it is not worse.”

The number of 18-year-old UK applicants is similar to recent years, but Mr Corver said the application rate – a “key measure of appetite for university” – is down again and below pre-pandemic levels.

But, he added: “Weakening demand for medicine courses seems to be behind these patterns, giving universities some reason to hope it will not be reflected in the much broader January figures.”

The Ucas figures appeared to show that the sector is more reliant than ever on demand from English 18-year-olds.

Of the 51,880 applications from within the home countries, a record 75.8 per cent were from 18-year-olds, and a record 91.8 per cent were from England.

At the same time, applications from 19-year-olds in the UK declined by a record 17.5 per cent – and the 20-year-old and 21-to-24 age categories also saw large falls in demand.

Mr Corver said success rates for 18-year-olds were not especially good last cycle, so young people might have been discouraged from applying again or might be pursuing other educational or career paths.

However, Sander Kristel, interim chief executive of Ucas, said it was encouraging that a record proportion of the 18-year-old UK applicants were from the most disadvantaged backgrounds.

“The narrowing of the disadvantage gap, against the backdrop of a global pandemic, shows the effort we have made as a sector, to ensure everyone in society can aspire to study the most competitive courses,” he said.

Despite little increase in numbers, students from outside the European Union now make up a record 23.5 per cent of all applicants – almost double the percentage from 2006, the Ucas figures show.

China remains the largest source market for international applicants, although the number of applicants is down slightly from the October deadline last year, continuing a trend first seen last year.

The largest growth among countries with at least 100 applicants came from Japan (30 per cent), Turkey (26 per cent) and Romania (25 per cent).

By contrast, the largest falls were from applicants from Nigeria (33 per cent), New Zealand (31 per cent) and Pakistan (25 per cent). The figures offer only a partial picture on international students because only a minority of them apply via Ucas.

Mr Corver said one slightly bright spot in comparison with recent years was from EU students, where demand has been stabilising, with some small upticks in application rates.

“Overall, the demand outlook remains subdued, but the data has been so bad recently many would have been fearing worse,” he added.

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com